Americans now view the Democratic Party as better able to manage the US economy than the Republican Party for the first time in nearly a decade, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that also found President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 35 per cent.
The nationwide online poll, conducted between July 29 and August 3, suggests Trump’s handling of the economy, including rising energy prices linked to the Iran war, could affect Republican prospects in the November midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress for the next two years.
Trump’s approval rating declined from 37 per cent in the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in July, leaving it just one percentage point above the lowest level recorded during his current term.
Democrats take narrow lead on economic management
According to the poll, 37 per cent of registered voters said the Democratic Party has the better approach to managing the US economy, compared with 36 per cent who favoured the Republican Party. Another 27 per cent said they were unsure or believed another party would perform better.
Reuters noted that Republicans had maintained an advantage on economic issues through most of Trump’s first presidency between 2017 and 2021, throughout former President Joe Biden’s administration and into Trump’s current term.
The poll marks the first time in nearly a decade that Democrats have held an advantage on the economy, although Reuters noted that a 2017 poll showing Democrats ahead used a different question format that did not include an option for respondents to say they were unsure or preferred another party.
Energy prices emerge as a key concern
According to Reuters, the Republican Party’s lead on the economy has gradually narrowed during Trump’s current term as US households faced rising petrol prices following the US-Israeli attacks on Iran in February and the conflict that has continued since then.
Trump has said the military action was intended to dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme, reduce its capacity to attack regional rivals and create conditions for Iranians to overthrow the country’s clerical leadership.
Reuters reported that petrol prices have increased by more than 25 per cent since the conflict began, with Americans paying, on average, more than one dollar extra per gallon.
Democrats lead in congressional voting intentions
The survey also found that 42 per cent of registered voters would support a Democratic candidate in congressional elections if they were held now, compared with 37 per cent who would vote Republican.
Independent voters favoured Democrats over Republicans by 12 percentage points, according to the poll.
Republicans will be defending narrow majorities in Congress during the 3 November elections.
Reuters noted that while the poll reflects national political sentiment, the outcome of congressional elections will depend on individual races, with only about three dozen of the 435 House of Representatives seats and roughly eight Senate seats expected to be highly competitive.
Trump dismisses polling
Trump has repeatedly rejected opinion polls showing declining public support for his leadership.
On 3 August, before the Reuters/Ipsos poll was released, he posted on his Truth Social platform:
“My REAL Polling Numbers, not those made up by the Fake News Media, are the best they have ever been.”
The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,505 US adults and has a margin of error of two percentage points.
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