Global food commodity prices are projected to increase by 7 per cent in 2027, following an expected 10 per cent rise in 2026, as higher energy costs, weather-related disruptions and challenges affecting food exports continue to put pressure on global markets.
The projection is contained in the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, which also forecasts a 9 per cent increase in grain prices in 2027.
According to the report, the anticipated rise in food prices is partly linked to the early effects of El Niño on tropical agricultural commodities. However, higher energy costs and disruptions to food exports through the Black Sea, following attacks on maritime infrastructure, are expected to contribute significantly to rising prices.
The World Bank noted that changing weather patterns could affect agricultural production differently across regions, with some countries experiencing favourable harvests while others record declining output.
Global grain production is expected to decline slightly in 2026. However, total grain supplies for the 2026–2027 season are projected to be 3 per cent higher than in the 2024–2025 season.
The report explained that stronger harvests of major crops could help moderate overall food price increases. Nevertheless, markets affected by El Niño and supply chain disruptions could experience sharper price increases despite relatively moderate movements in global commodity prices.
In contrast, beverage commodity prices are expected to decline by 24 per cent in 2026 as cocoa and coffee production recover from previous disease-related and weather-related challenges.
The World Bank expects beverage prices to stabilise broadly in 2027, with falling coffee prices partly offsetting anticipated increases in cocoa prices. Its agricultural commodity price index, which covers food, beverages and raw materials, is projected to rise slightly in 2026 before increasing by 5 per cent in 2027.
In Nigeria, headline inflation eased to 14.63 per cent in September 2026, down from 15.39 per cent in August, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
However, food inflation remained elevated at 19.59 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, compared with 20.16 per cent recorded in September 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The global food price outlook also comes amid expected adjustments in energy markets. The World Bank projects Brent crude oil prices to average $79 per barrel in 2027, compared with $91 per barrel in 2026, as increased global supply is expected to ease market pressures.
The projections highlight the continued vulnerability of global food markets to climate conditions, energy costs and international trade disruptions, with potential implications for food affordability, agricultural businesses and consumers.
As food prices remain under pressure, businesses, governments and agricultural stakeholders may face increasing demands to strengthen food supply chains, improve local production and build resilience against external market shocks.
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